This setup looks likely for the rest of the forecast, so the workweek isnt looking favorable conditions wise either. Swell NW 7 to 8 ft at 9 seconds. On Tues AM southwest winds to be lifting northeast at 30-35 kts over a solid area with seas 21 ft at 55S 154W aimed northeast. Updated: Fri, 28-Apr-2023 08:47:32 UTC. Tuesday the 16th into Wednesday the 17th could see yet another southern hemi ground swell, and we can see why it, and the ones before it, have high potential for surf-worthy status in SoCal (model by FNMOC): That jetstream model shows a nice, ideal, northward bend in the jetstream, guiding storms off Antarctica to direct their swell energy toward SoCal. IRI Consensus Plume: The April 19, 2023 Plume depicts temps are +0.434 degs today and it's the second month above the La Nina threshold. SUN SW wind 10 to 20 kt. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. Overview In VC, Channel Islands Harbor has been running 58-59. Residuals on Mon (2/28) fading from 4.3 ft @ 13 secs (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 296-300 degrees, North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height. Satellite Imagery //-->, S. Hemi Waking Up Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. Meteorological Overview 1 ft in the afternoon. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations). Elevation. Although this particular swell will fade Saturday the 6th, southern hemi will give south facing spots their turn on the Pacific's wave machine. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. Swell should drop to chest max with fewer pluses Sunday the 7th and then fade Monday the 8th (waist to chest). TONIGHT Surface Water Temps Hawaii's North Shore had sets at waist to maybe chest high and lined up and clean when the sets came with decent form but a little soft. Chance of Highs 77 to 85. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. Fetch was fading Thurs AM (4/27) in the Northern Gulf from 30 kts with seas fading from 20 ft at 53.5N 148W aimed east. MetEye forecast wind and wave maps for Sydney waters Local & coastal waters forecasts via clickable map MetEye forecast wind and wave maps Observations Latest weather for the Sydney area Live wind map for New South Wales Latest coastal weather Coastal observations via clickable map Latest weather graphs via clickable map Radar Viewer Victoria Tropical Update Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit. N wind 5 to 10 kt. Building 3205 A gale started developing east of New Zealand on Thurs AM (4/27) with 35-40+ kt south winds and seas 30 ft at 48S 166.25W aimed northeast. Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs. Overview Steve Shearer (freeride76) Monday, 01 May 2023. Still, neither of these forecasts seems realistic (see IRI Consensus forecast below). This is an upgrade from previous runs. Oahu: Expect swell arrival late on Mon (5/1) building to 2.1 ft @ 17 secs right before sunset (3.5 ft). The 30 day average was rising at -1.20 after falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high on the sets and lined up and somewhat rideable but with heavy texture on it from northwest wind. See chart here - link. This could be a fun day, but morning conditions are a bit of a wildcard. Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. Here's the sat-shot from above to save you from scrolling (image from NOAA GOES): This will bring a period of cool, showery weather Monday the 1st through Thursday the 4th, with most of the precip likely Wednesday night into Thursday. A gale developed in the Southwestern Pacific with swell from it fading in California (see Southwestern Pacific Gale below). MJO/ENSO Discussion It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. SST Anomaly Projections There are signs of warming along the coasts of Chile. Sun (2/27) south winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino with light winds south of there. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. Important: JavaScript support must be turned on in order to use these animated swell maps. Within 360 nautical miles west of F1 from 50S 160E to 55S 162E: Westerly 25kt, with storms and gales as in warning 471, heavy westerly swell. waves 2 ft or less. SW wind 10 kt. This run of E swell gets better before it eases, with some flukey winds to deal with. Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). 1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/30) Weak west anomalies were over the far west KWGA with moderate east anomalies filling the bulk of the KWGA. Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. Thursday, February 24, 2022 A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Get notified when this report is updated. This is dragging colder air along with it, but upper atmospheric temps (850 hPa, a mile up) should be well above the freezing mark, so surface temps will not dive too low, and nightly cloud cover should provide enough blanket to keep low temps in the 50s at the coast. Swell fading Tues (5/2) from 7.0 ft @ 10-11 secs (7.0 ft). But, remnants of La Nina are evident along the California and Baja coast with cold temps and the normal La Nina enhanced Springtime upwelling pattern in control. On Wed AM (5/3) fetch is to be solidifying from the south at 35-40 kts with seas 30 ft at 49S 139.5W aimed northeast. Summer - Waist to chest high. for Week of Monday 2/21 thru Sun 2/27, Solid Swell Hitting Hawaii NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131, Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ, Pieces Featuring Stormsurf: KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E) The Bureau of Meteorology operates a 7-day Global wave model called Auswave. Swell building some on Sun (2/27) to 6.0 ft @ 17 secs late (9.6 ft). Summer - Chest to head high. Rain. 1 French Land Register data, which excludes lakes, ponds, glaciers > 1 km 2 (0.386 sq mi or 247 acres) and river estuaries. Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/29) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador and rebuilding compared to weeks past with a tongue extending west over the Galapagos continuing along the equator reaching to 138W (results of Kelvin Wave #1). That Wed-PM/Thu-AM rainband looks the heaviest with rain lasting a good part of the day Thursday, clearing Friday. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S though losing coverage and intensity. Subsurface Waters Temps Dribbles Thurs AM (5/4) fading from 3.2 ft @ 11 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). This model suggests a transition to El Nino. After that two weak gales are forecast in the Central Gulf Sun-Tues (3/1) producing 26 and 29 ft seas respectively targeting from Pt Conception northward. Thursday the 4th (building day) into Friday the 5th should see NW ground swell from this system that peaked in the Western Pacific yesterday (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data): That got a slight upgrade, arriving a tad earlier (building Thursday), with size chest high Friday the 5th at west facing breaks, angled from 300 with periods 14 seconds. sgi_tile=1; During the winter months, north-west swells propagate down from the Pacific with south-west swells dominating for the rest of the year. National Weather Service Medford, OR Thermal inversion will be absent thanks to the incoming cold air, but the onshore flow and moisture being drawn into SoCal will keep May Gray in place. Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. Background swell was hitting Hawaii from undetermined source. Still plenty of swell out there though. La Nina is trying to hold on but appears to be getting significantly challenged by warmer water encroaching from the west. Wind The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. On Thurs AM (5/4) southwest winds to be fading from 35-40 kts with seas 26 ft at 40S 132W aimed northeast. See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view. But it will be too little too late. Swell NW Chance of rain 20 percent. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. NW wind 20 ktveering to N after midnight. W wind 5 ktbacking to SW after midnight. Swell W 5 to 6 ft. FRI By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. TAO Array: (4/30) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady if not backtracking slightly from 180W (previously 170E) to 177E. N wind 15 to 20 ktrising to 20 to 25 kt after A return to ENSO neutral is expected this summer. waves 2 ft or less. 6 ft. THU Something to monitor. Wind waves 7 to 8 ftsubsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the Multiple Weaker Gales to Follow. The 90 day average was falling at +7.44 today after previously peaking at +10.90 on 12/26, falling to +7.10 on 11/1. 13 secondssubsiding to 9 ft at 12 seconds in the afternoon. And another gale developed off the Pacific Northwest Sat-Sun (4/30) with 28 ft seas aimed east. Coastal waters from Florence Oregon to Point St. George California and westward 60 nm. Swell is pushing towards California. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. becoming 3 ft in the afternoon. Swell NW Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. Chance of showers. Global-Pacific wave (swell) map for surfers, windsurfers and sailors showing open ocean wave size, wave period and wave energy. Swell and SW 1 ft in the afternoon. We will also see a new pulse in localized NW windswell which will add some consistency out there as well as helping out with the shape. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled. TONIGHT Swell and SW 1 ft in the afternoon. 12 ft at 12 seconds. 10 to 12 ft at 13 secondssubsiding to 9 ft at 12 seconds in sgi_ord=Math.random()*10000000000000000; On Sat AM (4/29) 40-45 kt northwest winds are forecast building well off the Pacific Northwest with seas 24 ft at 44.5N 142W aimed southeast. Waikiki long range surf forecast for swell, wind, tide and weather conditions updated multiple times daily. W swell 10 to 12 ft at Fetch raced northeast in the evening at 35-40 kts with seas 24 ft at 52N 154W aimed east. Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours. Swell Direction: 315 & 340 degrees, North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height. Coastal Waters Forecast. Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. Friday should then revert with AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date. at 6:00 this morning were light and variable most everywhere. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and lined up and clean but very soft. the afternoon. chance of showers. Wind Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far: Monday the 1st is expected to run chest to at times head high at west facing breaks from ground swell and wind swell. You can customize the wave and wind maps with overlays for wind arrows, pressure and general weather for surfing. A few more like it are on the surf radar, and I'll get to those in a sec. LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST.